Uncovering the Dynamics of Consumption-Based Household Water Footprint in Response to Pandemic: The Hysteresis Effect of Disruption

The socioeconomic disruption of COVID-19 has strong implications for water management. However, it remains unclear how water use related to urban and rural household consumption responded to the outbreak. Taking 15 provincial regions in China for a case study, we quantified the variations of consumption-based household water footprint induced by the first outbreak of the pandemic and tracked the responsive changes of interregional virtual water flows and control relationships. We found in many regions, the most drastic change occurred only a quarter after the major outbreak, when the average water footprint of urban and rural households decreased by 13% and 9%, respectively. This indicates the presence of a hysteretic effect of disruption to household expenditures. With the subsequent recovery of household consumption, the water footprints in many regions rebounded and even surpassed the historical values. Guangdong had a fast rebound in its net virtual water inflow related to urban households because of the fast recovery of its manufacturing and services activities. The pandemic-related water footprint dynamics suggest not only the necessity of timely managing supply chains to prevent shortage of water and water-intensive products, but also the importance of fostering consumption adjustments for conserving water in a post-pandemic era. © 2023 The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.

Tidal lung hysteresis to interpret PEEP-induced changes in compliance in ARDS patients.

BACKGROUND: In ARDS, the PEEP level associated with the best respiratory system compliance is often selected; however, intra-tidal recruitment can increase compliance, falsely suggesting improvement in baseline mechanics. Tidal lung hysteresis increases with intra-tidal recruitment and can help interpreting changes in compliance. This study aims to assess tidal recruitment in ARDS patients and to test a combined approach, based on tidal hysteresis and compliance, to interpret decremental PEEP trials. METHODS: A decremental PEEP trial was performed in 38 COVID-19 moderate to severe ARDS patients. At each step, we performed a low-flow inflation-deflation manoeuvre between PEEP and a constant plateau pressure, to measure tidal hysteresis and compliance. RESULTS: According to changes of tidal hysteresis, three typical patterns were observed: 10 (26%) patients showed consistently high tidal-recruitment, 12 (32%) consistently low tidal-recruitment and 16 (42%) displayed a biphasic pattern moving from low to high tidal-recruitment below a certain PEEP. Compliance increased after 82% of PEEP step decreases and this was associated to a large increase of tidal hysteresis in 44% of cases. Agreement between best compliance and combined approaches was accordingly poor (K = 0.024). The combined approach suggested to increase PEEP in high tidal-recruiters, mainly to keep PEEP constant in biphasic pattern and to decrease PEEP in low tidal-recruiters. PEEP based on the combined approach was associated with lower tidal hysteresis (92.7 ± 20.9 vs. 204.7 ± 110.0 mL; p < 0.001) and lower dissipated energy per breath (0.1 ± 0.1 vs. 0.4 ± 0.2 J; p < 0.001) compared to the best compliance approach. Tidal hysteresis ≥ 100 mL was highly predictive of tidal recruitment at next PEEP step reduction (AUC 0.97; p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of tidal hysteresis improves the interpretation of decremental PEEP trials and may help limiting tidal recruitment and energy dissipated into the respiratory system during mechanical ventilation of ARDS patients.

Block Toeplitz Matrices: Multiplicative Properties

Given A, B, C, and D, block Toeplitz matrices, we will prove the necessary and sufficient condition for AB - CD = 0, and AB - CD to be a block Toeplitz matrix. In addition, with respect to change of basis, the characterization of normal block Toeplitz matrices with entries from the algebra of diagonal matrices is also obtained.

Backward Bifurcation and Hysteresis in a Mathematical Model of COVID19 with Imperfect Vaccine

Vaccination has been used as strategy to eradicate the spread of COVID-19. But imperfect vaccine has been reported to induce backward bifurcation and hysteresis in mathematical models of disease transmission. Backward bifurcation is a phenomenon whereby a stable endemic equilibrium exists contemporaneously with a stable disease-free equilibrium when the basic reproduction number is less than 1. This situation can cause difficulty in controlling an epidemic because the basic reproduction is no longer the only means of eradicating the disease. In this paper, we propose a mathematical model for the transmission of disease which includes imperfect vaccination. We show that our model is capable of capturing backward bifurcation under certain conditions. By using parameters that are relevant to COVID-19 transmission in Malaysia, our numerical analysis shows that low vaccine efficacy can trigger backward bifurcation.

The Scars of Supply Shocks: Implications for Monetary Policy

We study the effects of supply disruptions - for instance due to energy price shocks or the emergence of a pandemic - in an economy with Keynesian unemployment and endogenous productivity growth. By temporarily disrupting investment, negative supply shocks generate permanent output losses - or scarring effects. By inducing a negative wealth effect, scarring effects depress aggregate demand, which may even fall below the exogenous fall in supply. However, that scarring effects depress aggregate demand does not necessarily translate into low rates of inflation. On the contrary, scarring effects may reinforce and prolong the inflationary impact of supply disruptions. A contractionary monetary policy response may end up deepening scarring effects and increasing inflation in the medium run. A successful disinflation may require a policy mix of monetary tightening and fiscal interventions aiming at supporting business investment and the economy's productive capacity.

Narrative Economics, Public Policy and Mental Health.

General public's mental health can be affected by the public policy response to a pandemic threat. Britain, Italy and Sweden have had very distinct approaches to the COVID-19 pandemic: early lock-down, delayed lock-down and no-lock-down. We develop a novel narrative economics of language Culture-Based Development approach, and using Google trend data for seed keywords, death and suicide, we reach two main conclusions: (i) while countries had a pre-existing culturally relative disposition towards death-related anxiety, the sensitivity to the public policy towards COVID-19 was also country specific; (ii) however, significant spillovers from one specific national lockdown public policy to another country's mental health are identified.

An SEQAIHR model to study COVID-19 transmission and optimal control strategies in Hong Kong, 2022.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, one of the major concerns was a medical emergency in human society. Therefore it was necessary to control or restrict the disease spreading among populations in any fruitful way at that time. To frame out a proper policy for controlling COVID-19 spreading with limited medical facilities, here we propose an SEQAIHR model having saturated treatment. We check biological feasibility of model solutions and compute the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ). Moreover, the model exhibits transcritical, backward bifurcation and forward bifurcation with hysteresis with respect to different parameters under some restrictions. Further to validate the model, we fit it with real COVID-19 infected data of Hong Kong from 19th December, 2021 to 3rd April, 2022 and estimate model parameters. Applying sensitivity analysis, we find out the most sensitive parameters that have an effect on R 0 . We estimate R 0 using actual initial growth data of COVID-19 and calculate effective reproduction number for same period. Finally, an optimal control problem has been proposed considering effective vaccination and saturated treatment for hospitalized class to decrease density of the infected class and to minimize implemented cost.

High-Precision Tribometer for Studies of Adhesive Contacts.

Herein, we describe the design of a laboratory setup operating as a high-precision tribometer. The whole design procedure is presented, starting with a concept, followed by the creation of an exact 3D model and final assembly of all functional parts. The functional idea of the setup is based on a previously designed device that was used to perform more simple tasks. A series of experiments revealed certain disadvantages of the initial setup, for which pertinent solutions were found and implemented. Processing and correction of the data obtained from the device are demonstrated with an example involving backlash and signal drift errors. Correction of both linear and non-linear signal drift errors is considered. We also show that, depending on the research interests, the developed equipment can be further modified by alternating its peripheral parts without changing the main frame of the device.

Hysteresis in the Dynamics of Employment by Activity Sector

Hysteresis, referring to the property of a system whereby some temporary shocks cause permanent effects, has showed to be important to explain the dynamics of aggregate employment. What is not yet addressed properly in the literature is the differentiation of hysteresis effects according to activity sectors. This subject is important in order to understand whether severe recessions, like the one that followed the COVID-19 pandemic with its recognized heterogeneous immediate effects at the sectoral level, have permanent effects, and prospectively for applying adequate stabilizing fiscal and monetary policies, and possibly other specific measures, to prevent excessive market shocks even if they are perceived to be temporary. For this purpose, we apply the play hysteresis model, which describes a dynamic process whereby non-convex adjustment costs create intervals of weak reaction of employment to forcing variables, and spurts in employment in reaction to large or cumulative small labour demand shocks. The model is implemented by means of a switching employment equation. The switching parameter is interpreted as an ‘employment band of inaction’ that summarizes the magnitude of the hysteretic effects. We have found significant hysteresis effects in the employment dynamics across sectors, and these are especially important for industry. [ FROM AUTHOR]

Exchange rate volatility and trade flows in Indonesia and ten main trade partners: asymmetric effects

Purpose This paper aims to examine whether Indonesian cross-border trade responds asymmetrically to exchange rate volatility (ERV). Design/methodology/approach An exponential generalized autorgressive conditional heteroscedasticity model is applied to estimate the ERV of Indonesia and ten main trade partners using quarterly data from 2006 to 2020. A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag estimation is applied to estimate the impact of ERV on cross-border trade. Impacts from the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic are covered. Dynamic panel data is used for the robustness test. Findings In the short-run, ERV significantly affects exports to most of the top partners (positively, negatively or both). In the long run, asymmetric effects occur in Indonesia's exports to five top destinations. The weakening of the Indonesian Rupiah mainly supports exports in the short term. Imports from top partners are also affected by ERV in both the short run and, to a lesser extent, in the long run. Both the GFC and the COVID-19 pandemic reduced trade: for most cases, in the short run. The dynamic panel model suggests that ERV has asymmetric impact on cross-border trade in the long run. Practical implications Exchange rate strategies need to avoid a single-side policy approach and, instead, account for exporter and importer differences in risk behaviour and an asymmetric response to ERV in trade. Policymakers need to consider policies that stabilise the currency. Originality/value This study provides evidence that cross-border trade can react asymmetrically to the exchange rate uncertainty and that the impacts of real ERV are asymmetric as well. The authors also apply a dynamic panel that signals that ERV matters in the long run for Indonesian trade with top partners.

Remote implementation of a discrete temperature control by hysteresis

The practices of face-to-face or conventional laboratories are essential for the training by competences of the student of electronic engineering. However, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic at FIEE-UNMSM, it has been decided to carry out virtual laboratory practices using only simulators, harming the practical training of the student. This has motivated the implementation of remote laboratory practices, where the student can experiment with real physical devices at a distance. In this sense, as a prototype, the laboratory practice of discrete temperature control by hysteresis has been developed, using the Arduino Uno card programmed in Bascom-AVR, LabWindows/CVI for the graphical interface and the Team Viewer software for the remote connectivity of users. Obviously, the learning outcome compared to simulated practices is superior and is expected to be as close as possible to the laboratory presence. © 2022 IEEE.

Alternative Unemployment Rates in Romania

Official statistics and usual metrics place Romania at a relatively low level of unemployment. This paper shows why this can be misleading, considering various specificities of the Romanian economy. Looking at such factors as structural features, a high number of people employed in agriculture, involuntary part-time workers, etc. we show that there are alternative metrics for unemployment that can constitute better diagnostic tools for public policies and labor market reform. The alternative unemployment metrics presented here, show that the real unemployment figures in Romania are much closer to those in Mediterranean economies like Greece, Italy, and Spain that have been struggling with high unemployment. Furthermore, we emphasize possible directions and measures to be implemented in Romania to reduce unemployment (especially structural) and to support inter-regional social cohesion and sustainable economic growth. Given the current context of the economic downturn in the post-COVID-19 and the projected impact on vulnerable groups and the risk of poverty, it is more important than ever to develop sound evidence for the policy-making process.

Path dependence and stagnation in a classical growth model

This paper embeds a technical progress function in a classical growth model and studies the effects of permanent changes in parameters and temporary shocks such as pandemics. Technical change is driven by dynamic economies of scale and responds to distributional forces: the wage share regulates labour-saving technical change and employment regulates its capital-using bias. The model features path dependence in the employment-population rate and the output-capital ratio. Population growth and distribution can respond to the employment rate. Interpreted through the model, secular stagnation under neoliberal capitalism has been driven by a combination of diminished investment and reduced worker bargaining power more than by slower technical change and population growth. A temporary unfavourable shock to the output-capital ratio will permanently reduce the employment rate. In the fully endogenous model, this will increase the profit share and reduce the rates of technical change, capital accumulation, and population growth.

Mathematical Analysis of an Epidemic Model for COVID-19: How Important Is the People's Cautiousness Level for Eradication?

We construct an SIR-type model for COVID-19, incorporating as a parameter the susceptible individuals' cautiousness level. We determine the model's basic reproduction number, study the stability of the equilibria analytically, and perform a sensitivity analysis to confirm the significance of the cautiousness level. Fixing specific values for all other parameters, we study numerically the model's dynamics as the cautiousness level varies, revealing backward transcritical, Hopf, and saddle-node bifurcations of equilibria, as well as homoclinic and fold bifurcations of limit cycles with the aid of AUTO. Considering some key events affecting the pandemic in Indonesia, we design a scenario in which the cautiousness level varies over time, and show that the model exhibits a hysteresis, whereby, a slight cautiousness decrease could bring a disease-free state to endemic, and this is reversible only by a drastic cautiousness increase, thereby mathematically justifying the importance of a high cautiousness level for resolving the pandemic. © 2022, Intercollegiate Biomathematics Alliance. All rights reserved.

Play-Hysteresis in the Joint Dynamics of Employment and Investment

The slow recovery of many developed economies to the recent financial crisis, and the largest fall in aggregate demand since WWII caused by the COVID-19 Pandemic with its foreseeable negative and persistent effects on the aggregate supply, has generated renewed interest in the subject of hysteresis. The presence of significant hysteresis effects has important theoretical and policy implications. First, there is no unique and predetermined long-run equilibrium level of aggregate employment, as the equilibrium is permanently changed by temporary shocks. Second, as the economic system is not self-adjusting, substantial, timely, and sustained expansionary monetary and fiscal policy should be applied to mitigate the impact of shocks, including the temporary ones. Although it is not possible to quantify hysteresis effects in real time, we can use historical data to shed some light on the possible long-term economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. For that purpose, we use the linear play-hysteresis model in the context of two equation system to analyses the join hysterical dynamics of aggregate employment and investment. We implement the model empirically by means of a new algorithm for the simultaneous equations system applied to Portuguese data that separates the effects of large and small changes in aggregate demand on aggregate employment and investment using an endogenous determined switching parameter as reference.

OECD Ülkelerinde Íşsizliğin Histeri ve Doğal Oran Çerçevesinde Íncelenmesi: Alternatif Panel Birim Kök Testlerinden Kanıtlar

Íşsizlik önemli makro ekonomik sorunlardan birisi olması özelliǧini sürdürmekte, olumsuz etkileri ekonomik düzeyde kalmayıp sosyal düzeyde de tüm toplumlarda görülmektedir. Aralık 2020 verilerine göre Ekonomik Íşbirliǧi ve Kalkınma Örgütü'ne (OECD) üye ülkeler arasında işsizlik oranı Covid-19 pandemisinin henüz işgücü piyasasını sarsmadıǧı Şubat ayına göre 1,7 puan artarak %6,9 olarak gerçekleşmiştir. Pandemi süreci gibi yaşanan şokların işsizlik oranları üzerindeki etkilerinin geçici mi yoksa kalıcı mı olduǧunun işsizlikle etkin mücadele edilebilmesi için doǧru tespit edilmesi gerekmektedir. Íşsizlik oranının seyriyle ilgili üç temel yaklaşım bulunmaktadır. Doǧal oran hipotezine göre işsizlik serisi duraǧan iken histeri hipotezine göre birim kök içermekte, yapısalcı yaklaşıma göre ise kırılmalar olsa da duraǧan bir seyir izlemektedir. Bu çalışmada 30 OECD ülkesinin 2001-2020 yılları arası aylık işsizlik verileri kullanılmıştır. Bu çalışmanın literatüre katkısı pandeminin OECD ülkelerindeki etkisinin 2020 yılına ait aylık verilerin analize katılmasıyla gerçekleşmektedir. Mevsimsellikten arındırılan serilerde yatay kesit baǧımlılıǧı kontrol edildikten sonra histeri veya doǧal oran hipotezlerinin geçerliliǧi yatay kesit baǧımlılıǧını dikkate alan ikinci nesil panel birim kök testleri ile araştırılmıştır. Sırasıyla Pesaran (2007), Smith (2005), Hadri ve Kurozumi (2012) panel birim kök testleri ve daha sonra Nazlıoglu ve Karul (2017) Fourier panel birim kök testleri uygulanmıştır. Uygulanan testlerin tümünün sonuçları OECD paneli için histeri hipotezini doǧrulamaktadır. Sonuçlar, OECD genelinde işsizlik oranını etkileyen şokların kalıcı etkiler bırakacaǧını göstermektedir. .Alternate :Unemployment continues to be one of the important macroeconomic problems, its negative effects are not only seen at the economic level, but also in all societies at the social level. According to December 2020 data, the unemployment rate among the member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) increased by 1.7 points to 6.9% compared to February, when the Covid-19 pandemic had not yet shaken the labor market. Whether the effects of shocks, such as the pandemic process, on unemployment rates are temporary or permanent, it is necessary to accurately determine to fight unemployment effectively. There are three basic approaches to the course of the unemployment rate. While the unemployment series is stationary according to the natural rate hypothesis, it contains a unit root according to the hysteresis hypothesis, and according to the structuralist approach, it follows a stationary course even though there are breaks. In this study, monthly unemployment data of 30 OECD countries between 2001 and 2020 were used. The contribution of this study to the literature is realized by adding the monthly data of 2020 to the analysis of the effect of the pandemic in OECD countries. After controlling for the cross-sectional dependence in the seasonally adjusted series, the validity of the hysteresis or the natural rate hypothesis was investigated with second-generation panel unit root tests that consider the cross-sectional dependence. Pesaran (2007), Smith (2005), Hadri and Kurozumi (2012) panel unit root tests and then Nazlıoglu and Karul (2017) Fourier panel unit root tests were applied, respectively. The results of all tests performed confirm the hysteresis hypothesis for the OECD panel. The results show that shocks affecting the unemployment rate across the OECD will have lasting effects.

Hysteresis and fiscal stimulus in a recession.

The COVID-19 pandemic initiated a deep global recession, and with interest rates at very low levels, warrants consideration of the efficacy of different forms of fiscal stimulus in response. History reveals that deep recessions may cause output and total factor productivity (TFP) hysteresis, a permanent or highly persistent fall in the levels of output and TFP relative to pre-recession trends. This article analyses the output and welfare multipliers of fiscal stimulus during a recession using a macro model with TFP and output hysteresis. We find that transfer payments, public consumption and investment all have high output and welfare multipliers due to their positive effects on TFP in a recessionary environment. However, public investment has the highest output and welfare multipliers, because it has a more positive impact on labour productivity due to the increase in the public capital stock.

Hysteresis-based supervisory control with application to non-pharmaceutical containment of COVID-19.

The recent COVID-19 outbreak has motivated an extensive development of non-pharmaceutical intervention policies for epidemics containment. While a total lockdown is a viable solution, interesting policies are those allowing some degree of normal functioning of the society, as this allows a continued, albeit reduced, economic activity and lessens the many societal problems associated with a prolonged lockdown. Recent studies have provided evidence that fast periodic alternation of lockdown and normal-functioning days may effectively lead to a good trade-off between outbreak abatement and economic activity. Nevertheless, the correct number of normal days to allocate within each period in such a way to guarantee the desired trade-off is a highly uncertain quantity that cannot be fixed a priori and that must rather be adapted online from measured data. This adaptation task, in turn, is still a largely open problem, and it is the subject of this work. In particular, we study a class of solutions based on hysteresis logic. First, in a rather general setting, we provide general convergence and performance guarantees on the evolution of the decision variable. Then, in a more specific context relevant for epidemic control, we derive a set of results characterizing robustness with respect to uncertainty and giving insight about how a priori knowledge about the controlled process may be used for fine-tuning the control parameters. Finally, we validate the results through numerical simulations tailored on the COVID-19 outbreak.

Effective Perturbations on the Amplitude and Hysteresis of Erg-Mediated Potassium Current Caused by 1-Octylnonyl 8-[(2-hydroxyethyl)[6-oxo-6(undecyloxy)hexyl]amino]-octanoate (SM-102), a Cationic Lipid.

SM-102 (1-octylnonyl 8-[(2-hydroxyethyl)[6-oxo-6-(undecyloxy)hexyl]amino]-octanoate) is an amino cationic lipid that has been tailored for the formation of lipid nanoparticles and it is one of the essential ingredients present in the ModernaTM COVID-19 vaccine. However, to what extent it may modify varying types of plasmalemmal ionic currents remains largely uncertain. In this study, we investigate the effects of SM-102 on ionic currents either in two types of endocrine cells (e.g., rat pituitary tumor (GH3) cells and mouse Leydig tumor (MA-10) cells) or in microglial (BV2) cells. Hyperpolarization-activated K+ currents in these cells bathed in high-K+, Ca2+-free extracellular solution were examined to assess the effects of SM-102 on the amplitude and hysteresis of the erg-mediated K+ current (IK(erg)). The SM-102 addition was effective at blocking IK(erg) in a concentration-dependent fashion with a half-maximal concentration (IC50) of 108 µM, a value which is similar to the KD value (i.e., 134 µM) required for its accentuation of deactivation time constant of the current. The hysteretic strength of IK(erg) in response to the long-lasting isosceles-triangular ramp pulse was effectively decreased in the presence of SM-102. Cell exposure to TurboFectinTM 8.0 (0.1%, v/v), a transfection reagent, was able to inhibit hyperpolarization-activated IK(erg) effectively with an increase in the deactivation time course of the current. Additionally, in GH3 cells dialyzed with spermine (30 µM), the IK(erg) amplitude progressively decreased; moreover, a further bath application of SM-102 (100 µM) or TurboFectin (0.1%) diminished the current magnitude further. In MA-10 Leydig cells, the IK(erg) was also blocked by the presence of SM-102 or TurboFectin. The IC50 value for SM-102-induced inhibition of IK(erg) in MA-10 cells was 98 µM. In BV2 microglial cells, the amplitude of the inwardly rectifying K+ current was inhibited by SM-102. Taken together, the presence of SM-102 concentration-dependently inhibited IK(erg) in endocrine cells (e.g., GH3 or MA-10 cells), and such action may contribute to their functional activities, assuming that similar in vivo findings exist.

Tailoring magnetism in spinel vanadate CoV2O4epitaxial thin films.

Near itinerant cubic bulk CoV2O4is at variance with other spinel vanadates by not showing orbital ordering down to low temperature, albeit it displays fragile anomalies related to spin, and lattice structure, signaling a spin/orbital glass transition around 95 K. We investigate tetragonal-like epitaxial CoV2O4films on SrTiO3and (La0.3Sr0.7)(Al0.65Ta0.35)O3substrates that exhibit pronounced signature of spin reorientation transition from toa/bplane around 90 K unlike its bulk counterpart. Using in-plane and out-of-plane magnetic measurements, we demonstrate the intricate link between Co2+and V3+sublattice magnetizations that give rise to anisotropic magnetic switching. In-plane magnetic measurements reveal a wasp-waist shapedM(H) loop below reorientation transition temperature, while the out-of-plane follows antiferromagnet-likeM(H) response. The wasp-waist shaped feature could be linked to in-plane spin-canted (anti)ferromagnetism induced by canting away of V-spins away from antiferromagnetically coupled Co-spin direction below reorientation transition temperature. Further, we uncover the evidence for slow relaxation over a period of ∼104 s at 20 K and memory effect that indicates the possible existence for magnetic glassy phase in the low temperature regime. Using epitaxial strain as a control knob, our results inspire future study to manipulate orbital states, spin texture and itinerant electron character in tailored CoV2O4films away from cubic lattice symmetry.